Horizon / AFA Mediation · 2025 Full-Year Review

Editor’s Note: This 2025 review establishes a baseline for Horizon / AFA mediation tracking. It relies on publicly observable information and is prepared for informational purposes. Where detailed bargaining milestones are not publicly documented, Crew Signal focuses on process posture and measurable tracking signals rather than speculation.

Key Takeaways (2025)

Horizon Flight Attendants are in formal Railway Labor Act bargaining supported by National Mediation Board mediation under a docketed case.
In mediated disputes, the most meaningful public indicators are session cadence, scope narrowing, and whether the parties converge on a ratifiable package — not mediation status alone.
This full-year review is intentionally conservative: it establishes a durable baseline so the length of the mediated process can be tracked over time through weekly reporting.

Background & Context

Horizon Air Flight Attendants are represented by AFA-CWA under the Railway Labor Act (RLA). When direct bargaining does not yield a voluntary agreement, the National Mediation Board can facilitate negotiations through formal mediation. Mediation is structured but non-binding: any agreement must still be voluntarily reached and ratified by the membership.

Crew Signal’s mediation coverage is designed to be longitudinal. Rather than attempting to infer confidential bargaining movement, the project tracks measurable signals that correlate with progress toward agreement.

NMB Docket Baseline

Horizon’s mediation is tracked under NMB docket A-14102 with mediator Michael Kelliher. Crew Signal uses the existence of a docketed case as the baseline marker of formal mediation posture.

Formal mediation indicator: NMB docketed case A-14102.
Analytical purpose: establish a stable reference point for time-in-mediation tracking.

What Crew Signal Tracks

Weekly updates follow consistent “signal categories” so readers can compare progress across carriers:

Session cadence: whether mediation/bargaining dates expand, contract, or pause.
Scope movement: whether open items narrow (convergence) or broaden (divergence).
Posture signals: signs of intensified mediation, mediator pressure, or release discussions.
Ratification-risk drivers: pay, scheduling, reserve life, hotels, benefits, enforcement language.
Outcome markers: tentative agreement, ratification, rejection/reset, or NMB release posture.

Status at Year-End 2025

By year-end 2025, Horizon’s mediated negotiations remained within the Railway Labor Act framework under NMB oversight. This review functions as a baseline record and does not assume progress absent public milestone documentation.

Case posture: active NMB mediation under docket A-14102.
Release posture: no public indication of a cooling-off period; no strike deadline.
Key watch areas entering 2026: cadence, scope narrowing, and ratification-risk drivers.

Weekly Update Framework

Weekly updates are designed to document measurable movement (or lack thereof) with minimal narrative drift. Each update will summarize:

Status this week: what changed (or did not change) in public posture.
Process signals: cadence/scope/posture indicators observed.
Crew Signal assessment: brief, neutral interpretation relative to the baseline.

As additional carriers enter formal mediation, this same structure will be extended to enable side-by-side comparisons of time in mediation and outcomes.

Latest Weekly Update

Latest Update: Weekly Mediation Update · 2026.01.30